It is important to know what other countries think about India. I recently read this article of Reuters and thought that I should share with all of you.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/04/03/india-manmohansingh-cag-coalgate-congres-idINDEE83202O20120403?feedType=RSS&feedName=globalCoverage2

Key risks to watch out in India

By Frank Jack Daniel

NEW DELHI | Tue Apr 3, 2012 1:09pm IST

(Reuters) - India's economy is exposed to an extended euro zone crisis and policy paralysis at home, while the coalition government is under tremendous strain from scandals and rebellious coalition partners.

The risk of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's second term being cut short before a general election due in 2014 is low, but cannot be ruled out.

The failure of Congress party in state elections in early March, and a looming fight over the cheap sale of coalfields have put him and the party under even more pressure.

The 2012/13 budget, delivered in March, shied away from commitments to bold reform, its cautious tone reflecting the government's frailty.

RATINGS (Unchanged since March unless stated):

S&P: BBB-

MOODY'S: Baa3

FITCH: BBB-

The cost of insuring against default on 5-year sovereign debt traded at 83 basis points in mid-March, down around 25 points from the start of the year.

Following is a summary of key political risks in India:

SCANDALS, ELECTORAL FAILURE

Lurching from crisis to crisis for more than a year, Prime Minister Singh's government has a new front to deal with in the form of a looming fight over the low-priced sales of coalfields in his first term. A draft report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India leaked to a newspaper estimated lost revenue of $211 billion from the sales, but the CAG has since backed away from that number.

All parties will now wait for the final report to be tabled in parliament, when the government will once again be put under severe pressure.

Rahul Gandhi, son of current party leader Sonia Gandhi, utterly failed to deliver a promised comeback for the Congress party in crucial state elections in early March, casting fresh doubt on his capacity to become the next member of a dynasty to lead the country.

The party's flop in Uttar Pradesh has reduced Singh's scope to re-launch reforms and reverse a slowdown in economic growth.

Anger at Singh's poor performance is rising, with some talk in the Indian media that he will not survive as prime minister until 2014 elections.

That is unlikely, and the government could probably also muster the support to survive a no-confidence vote. Also helping the government is the lack of appetite among the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for a general election before 2014. Despite Singh's woes, it is by no means clear the BJP has won over sufficient voters to its Hindu nationalist cause.

Party chief Sonia Gandhi, who is at least as influential as the prime minister, has made more public appearances of late, but shed no light on her illness, which some Indian media reports say is cancer.

What to watch:

- CAG's report on coal, which has the potential to be even bigger than the telecoms scandal that rocked the government last year. No evidence of wrongdoing has yet emerged.

- The Gandhi dynasty. Rahul Gandhi has yet to prove himself an effective politician, raising concerns he will struggle to lead the party if his mother steps down.

ECONOMIC MALAISE, BUDGET FAILS TO INSPIRE

The stock market fell in response to Finance Minister Pranab Mukerjee's annual budget on March 16, seen as a weak attempt at tackling the fiscal deficit, the worst among the big emerging market BRIC nations.

Mukherjee unveiled a smattering of anti-deficit measures including an increase in services and excise taxes, but dared not cut subsidies for petroleum products, which have weighed heavily on government finances especially as oil prices stay high.

Some analysts believe the government may miss its newly-set target of cutting subsidy spending to 2 percent of GDP, as well as a goal of cutting the fiscal deficit to 5.1 percent from 5.9 percent in 2011-12.

In the main, the problems afflicting Asia's third-largest economy remain unsolved.

Inflation is down sharply, but almost entirely because of a drop in volatile food prices. With the government embroiled in corruption scandals, and dealing with unreliable coalition partners, the prospects seem slim for tricky tax reform or a softening of foreign investment rules that could help deal with infrastructure bottlenecks.

An early 2012 Supreme Court order that 122 telcoms licences be revoked was deeply embarrassing for the government, and Singh has had to roll back even modest economic measures like a railway fare rise.

The government has succeeded in passing no major legislation, leaving it with a heavy load of promised reforms to push through two fractious houses of parliament. Fickle coalition partners and a disruptive opposition mean the government is often effectively a minority when it tables bills.

Singh has promised to revive a stalled policy to allow foreign supermarkets into India, along with a corruption ombudsman. The first stage of a new tax system is planned for April. On current form, nobody should hold their breath.

India is sitting on a comfortable cushion of $300 billion in foreign reserves and a confidence-building $15 billion currency swap line with Japan was unveiled in December, so comparisons with India's 1991 payments crisis are premature.

As ever, India's dependence on imported, subsidised energy is a weakness, with high prices adding to pressure both on the current account and fiscal deficits. A long financial crisis in Europe could exacerbate capital outflows and further trim demand for Indian exports.

What to watch:

- Response to the budget, both political and economic. Moody's Investors Service said the budget was "credit negative" and lacked new solutions to address India's fiscal constraints.

- Headline inflation. If price rises show a sustained slowdown, expect the monetary easing India Inc. has been demanding for months.

- Oil prices, the global economy and domestic demand.

(Editing by Daniel Magnowski)

A Lynch Mob at Headlines Today !

I have been watching and reading every news about Anna Hazare with lots of interest and concern. I am really concerned about the way the Government is trying to throw a Nelson's eye on the whole effort, on one side, and on the other side I am angry at the way the TV channels are exploiting the situation. I was watching a debate on the 16th June in which Rahul of Headlines Today had four persons seated on each of his sides and had invited a good number of the public (not a bad idea anyway).

The two lady invitees on the dias seemed to have the least respect for the invitees in the forum and were critical about their behaviour. One of the ladies even went to the extent of calling the invitees of the channel " a lynch mob" and Rahul remained a silent spectator to this 'elite' comment. Its sad that the elite in India will NEVER understand the fact that corruption affects the poor the most and not them.

P.Uday Shankar

or Cancel

Governance in Transition says A K Antony

While news about Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare were doing the rounds I was able to fix my eyes and ears on at least two channels which had very good debates about the recent unfortunate events at Delhi. Many of them on the channels spoke their hearts out and it was a sort of a solace for me. What I could not tolerate was the rhetoric from the Government's spokespersons. One voice which came out in a different language and temperament was that of A K Antony's which got lost in the din. A K Antony is one person I have been watching from his Kerala days. You can just count on this gentleman.

Antony remarked on the 7th June 2011, "Our country is passing through a transparency revolution. The walls of secrecy are crumbling in every field: in politics, in administration, in judiciary, in business and even in journalism. The Government cannot stop [it] midway." ( The Hindu)

He then went on to explain that the country, its politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen and armed forces were not ready for this transition, resulting in problems. He went on to say that this transition will eventually take place but at a much later date. Being a man who calls a spade a spade brought out the stark naked truth about the psyche of the country and its countrymen/women which is here to stay for some time now. He is also an angry man like you and me. Frustrated with the magnitude of corruption in all fields at all levels this is the least this honest gentleman could have uttered. I only wish that we had more of his ilk.

P.Uday Shankar.

Good Governance is NOT Taking Sleeping People by Surprise

03-06/11

Anti-corruption movements have now caught the attention of people all over the world. People around the world are not tolerant anymore to lopsided accumulation of wealth by the few who have the opportunity to govern a country and the audacity and clout to stockpile money at home and abroad. During recent times we saw Anna Hazare coming out successful in convincing the Government to draft a bill. He also had to start the whole effort with a fast and had to pass lot of hurdles. Thank God it was all peaceful.

In sheer contrast we now have Baba Ramdev questioning the Government on black money stashed abroad. His approach may have been a bit uncouth for many to assimilate but then he also has an agenda and a good following. What irks me is why did not the government arrest him when he entered Delhi if they believed that he was a “thug” or a “crook”? Why did the Government grovel behind him and then pounce on him at midnight? The Government had taken a great risk by throwing a surprise on the crowd at midnight. Just like the participants from various religions who volunteered to sit with the Baba on the dais, we saw thousands pouring into the Ramlila Grounds. The secular crowd on the dais and the floor was evident of the long burnt hunger of the middle class in India against corruption. I have my own filthy moorings with the cursed middle class. Despite three generations we are yet to wriggle out of the proverbial middle class moorings.

It was indeed very sad to see an unarmed crowd of women, children, old persons, being taken into task at the stroke of midnight. Every learned Indian should condemn this act which is basically an infringement of Human Rights. The most seasoned and level headed response to this Emergency like act came from Mr Santosh Hegde.

Please use this URL to view the video on CNN-IBN:

http://ibnlive.in.com//videos/156810/hegde-disappointed-calls-police-action-inhuman.html

Similarly, many eminent persons have come out in the open to criticise the Government.

P.Uday Shankar.

Good Governance is Creating History and not Erasing History

02-05/11

It is the practice, or should I say a fashion, to rubbish everything that has happened during the past when someone takes up afresh the reigns of governance. This syndrome of sheer arrogance is not necessarily confined to governance of states and countries and can happen in any situation.

Take for instance a prominent old school in Coimbatore which was started painstakingly in the early seventies in a rented premise on Guru Govind Singh Road, R.S.Puram, Coimbatore. The first principal of the school had in those days gone from door to door in R.S.Puram and collected Rs 2 as minimum donation from houses in that posh locality of Coimbatore. My family members went all the way out to encourage the noble cause. I still remember going with my mother and having knocked at all the 90 houses in our colony and scores of other houses in Bashyakaralu Road. For over three decades the principal painstakingly built a highly dedicated team of committed teachers and went on to open two branches of the school. Unlike some of the other schools in the town, where regimentation was the order of the day to mould children, this principal believed in moulding children through love and affection. Both teachers and children had a space to function which was devoid of the dirty regimentation which many schools used to boast of as a great quality of a good school. During the three decades of her tutelage, the school won laurels in all fields- state ranks in academics, produced state level players in various games, clinched many prizes and awards for extra curricular activities and the climax of all this came when the principal received the coveted Dr.Radhakrishnan Award for the Best Teacher.

Then came the blow to all the good happenings in the school. In 2004-05 a new team of persons took charge of the school and the first thing they did was to rubbish all the past three decades of hard work. This new team even went on to rebuke the teachers for the way of their dressing and their ability to teach! This team, with the full knowledge of the management, unleashed a reign of terror in the campus. They were successful in very systematically and tactfully pressurizing over seventy teachers to go out of the school. This new team was so keen about ‘cleansing’ the school that they methodically ‘flushed away’ not only teachers but in the process lost over 700 students too. The height of this act of new governance was the selling away of all the awards and trophies which many students had earned for the school over the three decades. The sad part of all this is that the management of the school was ‘fully’ aware of ‘all’ the developments and were virtually throwing a Nelson’s eye on the happenings. The new team had a complete free hand to go the extra mile and do things with an impudence, audacity and temerity never seen before in any institution. As of today there is NOTHING that the management of the school can flaunt of about the glorious three decades. History has not only been changed but has also been erased.

This was just an example to drive home the idea of a similar situation in the governance of states. In Tamilnadu we now have a new team taking up the governance of the state. It is now a trend that has been established in Tamilnadu like the neighbouring state Kerala- alternate parties every five years! Last time this party came to power in Tamilnadu we saw the reversal of all schemes including even the good ones. The smoothly functioning farmers market was closed and similarly many other good welfare schemes were closed just because it was started by the earlier people in the government.

As a person having worked in Kerala I think that this sort of sadism does not prevail there. The best example I always give is the continuation of the red colour of the KSRTC buses. Despite several chances of the Congress party they have not changed the colour. That’s because they had better things to do. Another instance is the continuation of the famous Kudumbashree project, despite change of governments three times, since its inception. I also remember the continuance of Mr. TKS Jose as its CEO during both the regimes. If the present voting pattern in Tamilnadu is to reckon with it is time the parties in the state stopped underestimating the voters anymore. In a situation where people are yearning for good governance, acts of vengeance and vendetta are not going to escape the memory of the people that soon. Political parties should realise that with each election the gullibility level of the electorate is getting reduced and they are acting more responsible every time they get a chance to vote. A change in the name of the scheme is understandable but not the removal of the entire welfare scheme. History has to be created by new deeds and not by erasing history itself.

P.Uday Shankar

Give Good Governance for India Campaign

1-04/11

Corruption is a national sickness- an epidemic where middle class morality, value systems and lip sympathy are the only cheaply available prophylactic- an epidemic which affects all segments of the society, the worst being the poor and gullible- an epidemic for which the diagnosis, prognosis and remedy are all done by the public themselves since they themselves are the vectors (carriers) of the virus - an epidemic which is much loathed and despised but little effort has been put forth to prevent the spread- an epidemic which has penetrated into every nook and corner of the judiciary, police, military, central & state governments, public sector, private sector, and religious institutions. Corruption is an epidemic with which the people of the country have learnt to live with.

The rot is systemic and has reached a point of no return. I am sure that most of you who are reading this blogpost would be doing your best wherever you are working and would be expecting the same from others in the society. The disappointment comes when we do not find it elsewhere. Pride of executing ones job, love for the nation, contentment of wealth, respect for national property, so on and so forth have never been our nation’s virtue. If children had been brought up properly by parents and teachers, by instilling these virtues in their minds, our country would not have been facing these problems. Good Governance starts at home. If parents educate their children with the intention of getting back the money ‘somehow’ that is where the menace of dowry (a form of domestic corruption) comes in. If someone’s palm is greased for getting a good job for his son he is allowed to make the money back at his work place. A father would not mind selling everything under the sky to get a plump job as a Motor Vehicles Inspector for his son.

Just as there is a work culture for a firm, we need to have a common culture for the whole country transcending all races, religions, castes and colour. We have been singing praises of the Japanese and Germans but we were never near their virtues. We are a country of sloggers. We all work hard for our earning and most of us end up doing the same, generation after generation, without making much of a difference in standard of living. Our marginalised farmers and village artisans are typical examples for this. The condition of unorganized labour class in cities is still worse- teachers and nurses in private institutions for instance. These are the people who do not bother about scams and money laundering. Opinion polls taken during the recent elections are proof for this statement. Most of the rural folks in Tamilnadu were not aware of the 2G and 3G scams!! On one side we have the sloggers and on the other side we have the corrupt ones making money in multitudes of millions and stacking them up in benamis (proxy names) and in Swiss banks.

During my days in the school and college I had a very high regard for our armed forces and strongly believed that it was the only segment where corruption did not enter. But then you know better. Today corruption is an epidemic as I have already mentioned. Will it be eradicated? It is here that people like Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi, Kejriwal and scores of like minded people, you and me hold the answer for this question. The proposed Bill has already let loose a sort of frenzy across the country and the stuttering and uttering of sheer nonsensical statements are all part of the deterrent the Bill has already created during the past few days. So many Bills had been drafted in this country. I had a golden opportunity to be a part of the Policy Team in Sa-Dhan which was entrusted with the work of drafting the Microfinance Bill during 2005-06. Unfortunately the Bill that was presented in the Parliament was diametrically opposite to what we had suggested. That’s a different story. What I am excited now is about the excitement created around the Lokpal Bill drafting committee!!

The writing on the wall is loud and clear- Beware of the Ombudsman. Come what may the Bill has to be passed with enough and more teeth to fully eradicate this menace of corruption from this country. The proposed Lokpal Bill should look at the nexus between corporate and Government functionaries. The Lokpal Bill should include bureaucrats, politicians, people who ‘run’ and ‘use’ NGOs to convert black into white, the private sector, religious institutions and the police. The Bill should also look at a framework to include the judiciary and the military to an extent where it could raise strong objections to exposed corruption in these two crucial areas.

This campaign for Give Good Governance goes beyond the scope of eradicating corruption. We would need Governments at the State and Centre which Govern properly. We do not want Governments which are incapacitated to control and regulate the private sector. We do not want Governments which take over the businesses of the private sector blaming them of profiteering and then run the business themselves. Governments are not meant for running businesses. In a true democracy Governments should encourage enterprise on an equitable basis from its people and should never become one in the fray. Good Governance is where governments provide opportunities for many players to compete in the market and avoid monopolistic tendencies to creep into the economy. This is where the USA has miserably failed. In the name of democracy they have created gargantuan monopolies which virtually run the country. Back home, Governments find lot of profit in running buses and they run them too. They found the same result from selling liquor, mining sand etc. Then came Microfinance- Governments both at the centre and state found a gold mine of vote-banks and business opportunity and they just clinched the business. I would like to remind such ‘enterprising’ Governments that there is one another business, could probably be the oldest profession in the world, which could be a lucrative one if run by the Government- why leave that to the private sector?

These were some of my thoughts on Good Governance. I shall keep writing in this blog on this matter in the coming days.

We need to spread the word about the 3G- India Campaign (Give Good Governance for India Campaign).

Support the 3G-India Campaign by following this blog.

Participate by writing to me your views. Lets see how we can take it forward.

P.Uday Shankar

Coimbatore.

24.04.11.